The Impact (or the lack of it) of 'DeMon'

The impact (or lack of it) of 'DeMon'

The start of this quarter happened with almost EVERYONE saying that the usual suspects will present a torrid quarter. Slowdown in OND quarter, and if not, then weak commentary will surely be afoot.

What has happened is quite the opposite. Most 'suspect' corporates reported flat/marginal negative growth in 3QFY17.

Sample this - Summary of key corporate numbers for 3QFY17-Growth(%)(yoy)

1. Maruti domestic volume +4%
2. Asian Paint volume +2%
3. HDFC Bank retail disbursement +11%
4. Gruh Finance housing disbursement +20%
5. Axis bank retail disbursement +13%
6. Zee Ad revenue +3.4%
7. Kajaria Ceramics vol +1%
8. Ultra tech cement vol -2%
9. Bajaj Finance AUM +33%, 2.9mn new loans in the qtr.

Corporate commentary generally is 'cautiously optimistic', as it expects improvement in 4QFY17 and expects normalcy to come back in a quarter or two. Continuous improvement in liquidity will certainly go a long way in aiding performance. Remember, this regime will aid organised players, due to GST and the general consumer shift towards organised players and brands. Demonetisation only aids this phenomenon, and the mecca for the organised players is the stock market. So expect the listed cos to only gain due to demonetisation over CY17.

Choose what you ride wisely though - not all mules are horses